Seasonal · Turn-of-the-month seasonality
Gold · Silver Turn-of-Month · 1D
Turn-of-the-month seasonality on XAU/USD, XAG/USD CFDs, evaluated on completed 1D bars and executed at live bid/ask.
Annual return−0.7%Backtest
Max drawdown−1.0%Volatility 2.2%
Sharpe-0.31Trades 12
Since go-live+0.06% Live
Live equity
Backtest on real market data
Annual return−0.7%
Max drawdown−1.0%
Sharpe-0.31
Trades12
Winning trades33%
Time in market18%
Backtest on real historical prices from Apr 1, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026: signals on completed bars, filled at the next bar's open, net of typical spread, commission and overnight financing. Past and backtested results are not a reliable indicator of future results. (Alpaca)
Methodology
- Long from 2 calendar day(s) before month end until day 3 of the new month; flat otherwise.
- Long-only: short signals mean the position is flat.
- Position size targets 8% annualised volatility (risk level 2/5), capped at 3:1 leverage per instrument. Costs: live bid/ask spread, commission and overnight financing.
Monthly returns · Backtest
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Σ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.0 | -0.4% |